It's the WORST time to be in real estate

If you are reading this, you are part of an elite group. Many realtors have thrown in the towel already. So, if you are reading a newsletter about real estate then it means you are still in the game.

Congratulations!

I won’t mince words, this has been a savage 24-month run for even the most experienced real estate agents. Myself included. And it doesn’t appear to be getting easier after the NAR settlement announcement.

If you have been living it and pushing forward you didn’t need to hear this from me. You already knew it and felt it. Sometimes we get in our heads, so let’s cut through the emotions and get to the numbers.

• 2021 - 6.89m houses sold

• 2022 - 5.67m houses sold

• 2023 - 4.79m houses sold

Read that again. In the US, we saw 2 million fewer houses sold in 2023 compared to 2021. That’s a 30% reduction in real estate business.

What did that do to our income levels? A quick back of the napkin math might say:
- $400,000 Median Home Price
- 5% Commission (2.5% to buyer and seller)
- $20,000 Commission per Home
- 2,000,000 Less Homes Sold

$400,000 × 5% Commission x 2,000,000 Homes Sold

= $40,000,000,000

$40 BILLION. With a B. Billion.
We saw $40 billion less of commission opportunity.

There are no words. I had to use the gif because I could say nothing else.

Where does that leave us now?

The brave remaining souls of real estate. If you are still going, then take a bow. It says something about your commitment and resolve. You just survived the lowest amount of home sales in the last decade. The next lowest was in 2018, and it still had 550k more homes sold.

Realtors are running for the hills.

Great, now what?

Time to get started. I can’t predict 2024, but for planning sake, let’s expect the same volume as 2023.

Is it a historic low? Sure.

Now, look at it another way. There were still 4.8m homes sold in the US. That means 4.8m opportunities to sell a home. You are telling me that doesn’t excite you? I know any realtor committed to working hard, customer focused, and obsessed with their local market can close 4-5 homes out of the 4.8 million.

I didn’t pull that 4-5 homes number out of thin air either. Along with the slower home sales, we also have more real estate agents than ever before. More competition than ever. In 2023, there were 3.1 homes sold per registered National Association of Realtors (NAR) agents. That means the average agent is doing 3 homes per year.

I think anyone taking the time to read this is already better than average, so 4 to 5 homes feel like a reasonable expectation. We may have more competition, but…

THERE IS ALWAYS ROOM FOR THE BEST.

Get excited. Get energized. Get focused.

Put in the effort, do the work, and be obsessed with doing a great job. On top of that, the best way to hit your numbers is to have as many tools in the belt as possible. Selling traditional real estate is a GREAT tool. There are also many other tools to help you solve homeowners’ problems including wholesaling, subject two, and flipping homes.

If these aren’t in your toolbelt yet, don’t worry. Find someone who has them! Share the deal, have them help you get it done, and teach you along the way.

This is what I’m talking about when I say Send me your deals!

If you bring a problem and an opportunity, then we can almost always find a solution.

Let’s goooooooooo 🚀 

— Temp